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- Posted
- 2026-09-08 08:36 UTC
- First seen
- 2d ago via trade comments
- Chain
- Solana
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Other theses on this trade
BASE CASE: $750M $STONK. Another $500K+ revenue day. At this point, $500K isn’t an outlier — it’s becoming the baseline. Even with ZERO further growth: $500K/day = $182M+ annualized revenue. And a significant portion of that revenue continuously BUYS $STONK from the market and BURNS it permanently. Revenue keeps flowing. Buybacks keep firing. Supply keeps shrinking. We’ve already watched revenue-driven platforms like $PONS and $PUMP command substantially larger valuations once their economics became impossible to ignore. $STONK doesn’t need another revenue explosion for the thesis to work. It just needs to maintain what it’s already doing. $750M base case.
would say you guys are late but you’re genuinely early, spend some time researching the tracjecotry of this project… this is the beginning of a new cycle of wealth
would say you guys are late but you’re genuinely early, spend some time researching the tracjecotry of this project… this is the begging of a new cycle of wealth
the base for STONK is 500m - 1 billion mc with or without you… and that’s the BASE! 😂
$500M–$1B is my BASE CASE for $STONK. Here’s why: StonkFun has now gone 10 straight days without revenue falling below ~$599K. Multiple $1M+ days. A $2.2M peak. And ~$600K is starting to look like the floor — not the ceiling. We’ve already watched this playbook happen with launchpad tokens. $PONS exploded as revenue accelerated and buybacks turned platform usage into direct token demand. $PUMP reached multi-billion-dollar territory after proving that launchpad activity could generate serious recurring revenue and fund aggressive token buybacks. Now look at $STONK: StonkFun went from $20K–$80K revenue days to $600K–$2M+ days in weeks. At just $600K/day, that’s roughly: $219M annualized revenue. And a significant portion of that revenue is used to BUY $STONK from the open market and BURN it permanently. Usage ↑ Revenue ↑ Buybacks ↑ Supply ↓ Meanwhile $STONK is still sitting around a ~$150M valuation. PONS is already around $450M. PUMP is around $1.8B. I’m not betting that $STONK needs to become the biggest launchpad in crypto. I’m betting that if ~$600K+ daily revenue proves sustainable, a ~$150M valuation won’t make sense forever. That’s why $500M–$1B isn’t my moonshot target. It’s my base case.
My base case for $STONK is a $500M–$1B valuation. StonkFun has gone from ~$20K–$80K daily revenue to regularly producing ~$800K–$1M+, with roughly 60% of revenue being used to buy $STONK off the open market and burn it. That creates a simple flywheel: More platform usage → more revenue → more $STONK bought → more supply burned. The thesis doesn’t require revenue to keep growing exponentially or 57% of supply to actually be burned by EOY. It simply requires recent usage to prove sustainable. If StonkFun can maintain even a meaningful portion of its current revenue while expanding RWA/tokenized-asset adoption, I believe $500M–$1B is a reasonable base-case valuation, with significantly more upside if revenue continues growing.